Monthly Economic Letter: July 2023

July 17, 2023

Over the past month, the NY/ICE December contract continued to trade sideways within the range between 77 and 85 cents/lb that has contained values since late November 2022. There was a test of the lower end of that range (closing prices dropped to 77.9 cents/lb on June 26th, which was the lowest level since December 2022)

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Monthly Economic Letter: June 2023

June 13, 2023

After three years of drought, significant rainfall finally arrived in West Texas. In certain areas, precipitation was heavy enough to cause flooding. While flooding may have a detrimental impact on some farm operations, the arrival of rain has already caused projections for abandonment to decrease.

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Monthly Economic Letter: May 2023

May 16, 2023

There has been renewed concern about 2022/23 production recently. The current focus of attention is India, where arrivals at gins are significantly behind the pace from one year ago. There has been speculation that Indian growers may be withholding volume in hopes of securing better prices, but the breadth of the gap has given root to worry that the Indian crop may end up being smaller than currently forecast.

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Monthly Economic Letter: April 2023

April 12, 2023

For cotton, a steep correction in demand has been underway for several months. As concerns about the trajectory of economic growth mounted toward the second half of 2022, order volumes collapsed. However, consumer spending did not drop as was feared. Although uncertainty remains for the future, inflation-adjusted U.S. consumer spending has held at levels 25% higher than in 2019.

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Monthly Economic Letter: March 2023

March 10, 2023

The trajectory of the global economy looms large. The latest data releases indicate inflation has yet to be cured, which may mean interest rates will have to climb higher. Meanwhile, labor markets have proven resilient, consumers still have savings from the stimulus, and COVID has faded as a pressing threat. Geopolitical developments are unknowable but may prove influential.

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