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Cotton benchmarks moved higher and then lower over the past month. Current values for most prices are near those posted one month ago.

The NY/ICE December contract pushed through resistance near 82 cents/lb around the middle of July. With the USDAS’s reduction to its U.S. production forecast, December prices climbed to levels near 90 cents/lb.

Over the past month, the NY/ICE December contract continued to trade sideways within the range between 77 and 85 cents/lb that has contained values since late November 2022. There was a test of the lower end of that range (closing prices dropped to 77.9 cents/lb on June 26th, which was the lowest level since December 2022)

After three years of drought, significant rainfall finally arrived in West Texas. In certain areas, precipitation was heavy enough to cause flooding. While flooding may have a detrimental impact on some farm operations, the arrival of rain has already caused projections for abandonment to decrease.

There has been renewed concern about 2022/23 production recently. The current focus of attention is India, where arrivals at gins are significantly behind the pace from one year ago. There has been speculation that Indian growers may be withholding volume in hopes of securing better prices, but the breadth of the gap has given root to worry that the Indian crop may end up being smaller than currently forecast.