News

Given widespread reports of a slowdown in mill demand, the decrease to USDA consumption this month could have been anticipated. China is central to global cotton demand, and the continued inversion of traditional relationships between Chinese prices and other benchmarks may signal that a global recovery in demand is not yet underway.

The recent volatility in NY/ICE futures has been attributed to various factors, including short covering in the futures market and import interest from China. The steep increases in early November can also be interpreted as a sensitivity to potential increases in demand for U.S. exports.

Price decreases over the past month indicate that demand-related concerns have been winning the contest between the competing storylines involving a weaker downstream outlook and lower production expectations in a couple key cotton-growing countries.

The decline in Chinese prices relative to those from the rest of the world may affect trade in the new crop year. China is normally the world’s largest importer of both cotton fiber and yarn. However, significantly lower domestic prices encourage consumption of domestically grown fiber and should discourage imports.

In the U.S., consumer spending on clothing has been flat for the past year. However, it has been holding at levels that are 25% higher than they were in 2019. If U.S. consumers pull back on clothing purchases, it may hit the market just as retailers have caught up with consumer demand after the onset of the shipping crisis.